All three gauges on one page!
These are the gauges/graphs Simonton residents usually watch in the rare case of a high-water event. Simonton does not have its own NOAA gauge.
NOTE: The NOAA recently (May 2024) updated their graphs to an interactive-styled graph, those active graphs are at the links shown below, unfortunately, those graphs don’t display well on a small screen. As a result, the graphs we are displaying below are the traditional style graphs that we are accustomed to seeing. I kept that style on this page since they do so well on small screens like your cell phone. The data and gauge are still from the same source just in the traditional style graph.
( The NOAA normally updates these gauges roughly every 30 minutes or so, often that pace is picked up during inclement weather. The gauge shows its latest date and time at the bottom of the graph. With some browsers, you may need to Refresh or Reload your page to see the latest available information. )
My opinion: If both the highest projected height is below 120′ on the San Felipe gauge, and the highest projected height of the Richmond gauge is below 46′, get on with life, and don’t let all the Facebook posts get into your head, it’s not worth it!
The San Felipe Gauge (@14 river miles north of Valley Lodge) : https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/BAWT2 (The San Felipe gauge is shown in actual feet above sea level.) – If this graph shows a projected height of 120 or more then it’s worth paying attention to.
Historic Crests for the San Felipe Gauge:
(1) 129.00 ft on 08/29/2017 (Harvey)
(2) 128.85 ft on 05/28/2016 (“Memorial Day Flood”)
(3) 123.41 ft on 04/19/2016
(4) 122.29 ft on 06/01/2015
(5) 119.79 ft on 01/08/2019
(6) 117.78 ft on 06/21/2015
(7) 116.58 ft on 06/05/2021
(8) 116.12 ft on 03/16/2016
(9) 114.83 ft on 05/20/2015
(10) 109.64 ft on 11/04/2013
The Richmond Gauge (@36 river miles south of Valley Lodge): https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/RMOT2 (The Richmond gauge is an older gauge that uses a local landmark for height reference to remain consistent. The levels that are shown are 27.02′ below actual feet above sea level.) -If this graph shows a projected height of 46′ or more then it’s worth paying attention to.
Historic Crests
(1) 55.19 ft on 09/01/2017 (Harvey)
(2) 54.74 ft on 06/02/2016 (Memorial Day Flood”)
(3) 51.40 ft on 11/28/1940
(4) 50.30 ft on 10/21/1994
(5) 50.13 ft on 05/05/1957
(6) 50.01 ft on 06/03/2015
(7) 49.68 ft on 01/01/1992
(8) 49.67 ft on 04/21/2016
(9) 47.72 ft on 05/25/1965
(10) 47.70 ft on 05/08/1944
(11) 47.08 ft on 10/22/1998
(12) 46.59 ft on 01/10/2019
We had a resident ask if I could include the Hempstead Gauge here also. You bet, here you go:
The Hempstead Gauge: https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/HPDT2 This river gauge is considerably further upstream, about 60 river miles north of Valley Lodge, but may help to give us a preview of water headed our way. (It is also one of the oldest gauges in the basin. It displays a height that is 107.9′ below actual sea level)
Historic Crests
(1) 66.10 ft on 12/08/1913
(2) 63.60 ft on 07/04/1899
(3) 54.89 ft on 05/27/2016
(4) 54.21 ft on 05/02/1957
(5) 54.04 ft on 11/30/1940
(6) 53.00 ft on 12/28/1991
(7) 52.00 ft on 05/07/1944
(8) 51.58 ft on 10/17/1994
(9) 51.24 ft on 08/28/2017
(10) 51.23 ft on 05/22/1965
(11) 49.97 ft on 05/31/2015
(12) 49.31 ft on 04/26/1945
(13) 48.28 ft on 02/28/1991
(14) 47.52 ft on 04/29/1942
(15) 47.38 ft on 03/01/1992
(16) 47.00 ft on 07/03/1940
(17) 46.40 ft on 02/08/1992
(18) 45.93 ft on 06/07/1979
(19) 45.80 ft on 02/26/1958
(20) 45.66 ft on 07/18/2007
Which gauge should you watch?
Well, you may want to watch all of them, but the San Felipe is much closer in distance and depth to Valley Lodge. One thing to take into account is where the water is coming from. If the water is mostly from local rain then the Richmond gauge may have more importance, but if the water is mostly due to drainage coming from the north, then the gauges above us become more relevant.
The San Felipe gauge is about 14 river miles north of the upper sections of Valley Lodge, and about 21.5 miles north of the FM 1093 bridge where it crosses the river by Section 1 at the south end of the neighborhood.
The Richmond gauge is about 36 miles south of the FM1093 bridge. And about 43 miles from the north end of Valley Lodge.
When water is at its low point, there is about 58′ of total drop (as the river runs downhill to the gulf) from San Felipe to Richmond. If the river is high there is about 47′ of drop between the two. The difference is due to water volume, speed, and spread as it gets higher.
When the water is high there is only about 14.5′ difference between San Felipe and north Valley Lodge. And about 32′ of difference between Richmond and Valley Lodge. Again, you can’t put too much faith in that difference though as it changes according to total water volume, velocity, local rain, and spread at the time. See the NOTE reference for 05/11/2024 below.
If the San Felipe graph shows a projected height in the 120’s it’s worth paying attention to. If it gets into the mid 120’s – that could possibly mean some flooding in VL.
For instance, the Harvey Hurricane Flood in 2017 registered 129′ at San Felipe and hit about 114.5 at the north end of Valley Lodge, and about 113′ at the far south end. Most of our neighborhood roads are roughly 111′- 112′ above sea level. Your home’s current Elevation Certificate should show its base floor elevation. If you need help reading it give me a call anytime.
FYI: Here is a good article from the government that explains a little more about the gauge discrepancy between the older gauges and the newer ones: https://www.weather.gov/ctp/NegativeRiverStages
Another gauge you can check out is the HCFCD Stream Elevation Sensor #8029 where 1489 crosses the Brazos River about 3 miles south of Simonton (8 river miles south of Valley Lodge), there is not a projection graph available for this location, but it does show the real-time current level updated as often every 15 minutes during heavy weather events. The Harris County Flood Control District installed the current sensor that this gauge utilizes back in May of 2019. They have some older records listed but I am not sure how those were measured, and may just be estimates. I have not been able to verify if the gauge is using a benchmark that is set to correspond with “above sea level” readings or if it has an offset the way some of the older gauges do. Although it has no projection information it is very handy to see when the river is rising or falling. The sensor transmits the current height about every 15 minutes making it easy to see general movement direction. It also records rainfall for the previous 24 hours. See that one here: https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDetail/Index/8030
Also of interest is the Fort Bend County LIDAR mapping page: Fort Bend There you can find a digital typographical map overlay showing elevation contour lines.
NOTES and OBSERVATIONS from the field:
05/11/2024 – San Felipe crested at 118.56′ and the HCFCD Stream Elevation Sensor #8029 crested at 95.22′. Richmond crested at 45.66′. To get an approximation of water height in Valley Lodge we used a Johnson Controls portable leveling site and a tape measure to determine that the current Brazos water level at the time was approximately 8’3″ below the level that Harvey maxed out at. We based this off of the water level at the end of Hackamore Rd in Section 1 in comparison to a home on Hackamore in which the previous owners stated that they received 10-12″ of standing water inside of their home during the Harvey flood of 2017 and about 6″ during the Memorial Day flood before that. At noon on 05/11/2024, the water level was about 7’3″ below their ground floor level. Based on these observations and the homeowner’s memory we believe that in Valley Lodge the Brazos crested at about 105′-106′ +/-. Note, that would mean a deviation between San Felipe and Valley Lodge of about 13’+/-, once again emphasizing the fact that the difference between the two can vary by many inches, even feet, due mostly to total water volume, water velocity, local rain, and spread at the time, or even downstream obstructions. I believe there was a larger difference between San Felipe and VL during Harvey because the majority of the rain was coming from the storm which was located primarily in the south-east of Texas. During this latest event, most of the water, but not all, was coming from drainage originating to the north.
05/22/2024 – The San Felipe gauge crested at 118.26′, Richmond: 45.73′, and #8029 : 95.05′